Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

This morning Census released the published tables for the 2022 American Community Survey. This is the key data source for all socio-economic characteristics. It gives us detailed information on income and poverty, employment, working-from-home, migration, homeownership, all by geographic location and race and ethnicity. In other words, it’s the Super Bowl for data nerds as we explained it to the Legislature recently. In the weeks and months ahead I will get to all of those topics and more. Some of the analysis will have to wait for the microdata to be released later in October.

But first I wanted to start with something that is top of mind not only to our office, but also every group we speak with: domestic migration. By now we all know that Census estimates that Oregon lost population in 2022 for the first time in two generations. But until this morning we had zero details on who moved into and moved out of the state. Keep in mind this is backward looking data. Our office does expect a modest rebound in population growth in the years ahead. But it is important to know what exactly we have gone through. Also note that this is just one estimate. The ACS data does not perfectly align with the Census population estimates, so if you’re pulling from various places like we do, there will be some differences.

When it comes to migration last year, we have known for months what the Census estimates have been. But we didn’t know the components. The key shift here is not that people stopped moving into Oregon, but rather there was a big increase in the number of people who packed up and left the state. This first chart is pretty striking from an historical perspective and to see the shift. Yes, in-migration is a bit slower in recent years but in the big picture these estimates match what we have been seeing in real time looking at the flow of surrendered driver licenses at Oregon DMVs. But it’s that outflow that is driving the overall migration numbers.

What follows are a few charts showing that the negative net migration was pretty much across the board. It is, roughly, half children and half adults, half college graduates and half non-college graduates, it is nearly 50/50 for white non-Hispanic and BIPOC, it is negative across all broad income groups, and so on. And, again, once the microdata becomes available we will have more details on cross-tabulations among these groups, including where people are moving to or from.

First up is migration by age. In 2022 Census estimates Oregon lost population across nearly all age groups. Oregon is estimated to have seen positive net migration among college-age, young adults (18-24 years old, a key demographic and potential silver lining) and among young retirees (65-74). Now, the one thing that stands out is the increase in outmigration among working-age adults and children, an indication that families on net left the state. This is somewhat confirmed by the vast majority of the net migration was among married households. We need the microdata to get at household size and composition and potential impact on housing demand etc, but these top-level published tables give a good idea here.

Next let’s look at net migration by household income. In 2022 it is estimated Oregon saw net negative migration across all broad income groups. You’ll get sick of me saying this, but yes we need to wait for the microdata to get more detailed data in terms of these groups. A bracket of more than $75,000 per year is basically half of all Oregon households, but this is what is available in the published tables.

Next up is net migration by educational attainment, looking at two broad categories here. Something we have dug into the past is the more detailed information on educational attainment, especially when it comes to young college graduates, what type of degrees they earned and so on. An update there will be in the works later this year.

This last chart shows domestic migration by race and ethnicity, or at least white, non-Hispanic and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color. Oregon experienced net out-migration across both populations.

That’s probably enough for a first look at some of the characteristics of migration last year. Again, we will have plenty more weeks, and months ahead. Specifically, I will be diving into household income and poverty, including by race and ethnicity; employment by age and race and ethnicity; household formation and homeownership by age; and working from home by geographic location, occupation, and migration. I will also have most of this by metro area as well. If there is anything else you are interested in, please let me know.