Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Migration, and overall population growth are key drivers of our office’s long-run economic and revenue outlook. And while we focus primarily on those impacts, it is also important to note the big demographic changes that are happening within the state. The two biggest ones are the generational shifts happening — Baby Boomers retiring, Millennials becoming the economic drivers, the relatively smaller Gen Z, etc — and the increasing racial and ethnic diversity of Oregonians.

While Oregon will continue to be a more diverse place in the years ahead, the state still ranks below average. Looking at the 2020 Census data, Oregon ranks 30th among all states when it comes to overall racial and ethnic diversity. However, if we focus specifically on the Hispanic and Latino population, Oregon ranks 14th highest across states. Now, at 14% of the state’s population, Oregon’s Hispanic and Latino population is still a smaller share locally than it is nationally (19%) but the national numbers are driven by increased diversity among large states like California, Arizona, Texas, Florida and the like.

The first chart shows the strong growth and big increase in the state’s Hispanic and Latino population. Back in the 1980 Census, about 2% of Oregonians identified as Hispanic or Latino. Fast forward to the most recent 2020 Census and 14% of us did so. Our Hispanic and Latino neighbors make up the fastest growing demographic in our state.

While this growth is largely seen statewide, different regions of the state are more diverse than others. When it comes to Oregon’s Hispanic and Latino population we see larger concentrations and more diversity in the Willamette Valley, the Gorge, portions of Eastern Oregon, particularly around Boardman Hermiston, and Ontario, and then in Southern Oregon in both Jackson and Klamath counties.

An important demographic point is that Hispanic and Latino Oregonians have a younger age profile, and younger generations are more diverse overall. For example, about 5% of Baby Boomers in Oregon identify as Hispanic or Latino, while 16% of Millennials do, and 23% of Gen Z does.

This increased diversity by age has a few important implications moving forward. First, Oregon will continue to become more diverse in the decades ahead. Second, part of that increased diversity is due to somewhat higher birthrates among Hispanic and Latino households, but also just that if households in their 20s, 30s, and 40s are more diverse, the children will be as well. Third, more diverse counties have better demographics and more balanced births and deaths. This goes for rural counties just as much as for urban ones. And fourth, given there is a lot of truth to the demography is destiny saying, there will be big economic implications in the decades ahead as the workforce and households become more diverse. This why somewhere like Salem has great forward-looking demographics.

Speaking of economics, Hispanic and Latino Oregonians are employed at average or slightly above average rates in recent decades when compared with Oregon as a whole. Higher employment rates are seen among low- and middle-wage occupations like agriculture, building maintenance, production, construction, food prep, and transportation and material moving.

As such, the composition of the types of jobs worked does have an impact on overall household income to some degree. As noted before, Oregon, like the nation, has large historical disparities. Looking back a decade or two, median household income for Hispanic and Latino households in the state was 20-30% lower than the overall statewide figures. Economic growth in the past handful of years has been a bit more equitable. Today, the median household income gap is more like 10-15% based on the latest available data. We get 2022 ACS data in September.

Finally, we know wealth inequality in America is even greater than income inequality. Here, too, we see big historical disparities that may be starting to lessen in recent years. For example, Oregon’s overall homeownership rate stood at 64% in 2021. Homeownership among Hispanic and Latino households in the state was 48%. That’s a big gap, and while some of it is impacted by the age composition — younger households tend to be renters, older tend to own — we do see lower rates of homeownership for Hispanic and Latino Oregonians at every age group.

If we look at mortgage origination data from the FHFA, we are seeing an increase in new, first lein mortgages going to Hispanic and Latino Oregonians. A decade ago only a couple percent of new mortgages went to our Hispanic and Latino neighbors, but in the most recently available data it was 9%. That is still a smaller percentage than the share of all households that identify as Hispanic or Latino, but starting to move in the more equitable direction. Moving forward, given demographics and the structurally tight labor market, I would expect to see Hispanic and Latino households make up an increasing share of new mortgages.