Posted by: Josh Lehner | October 25, 2016

Fullish Employment in Oregon

Just a quick update on the components of our office’s Total Employment Gap. Right now the measure indicates that Oregon’s labor market is as tight has it has been since the 1990s, although there still remains some slack. However, as noted previously, both unemployment and underemployment have returned to their pre-Great Recession or even their full employment positions. The remaining slack is participation issues. While participation is rising, it remains lower than what can be explained by demographics alone and there is some indication that the current data may even overstate the improvements somewhat. That said, progress is being made. A strong labor market pulls individuals back into the economy and also pulls workers and their families out of poverty. The business cycle is not dead and Oregon is not now getting to the point where such improvements are now being seen.

orempgap0916


Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    Just in case no one else asks. Below you have in your last sentence that “The business cycle is not dead and Oregon is not getting to the point where such improvements are now being seen.” Did you mean to write that “… Oregon is now getting to the point …”, rather than “not getting to the point”?

    • Oh my! Thanks for the correction. Obviously a big typo there!

  2. […] — has reached all corners of the state, albeit to varying degrees. The state as a whole is approaching full employment. Given that the business cycle isn’t dead, we are also starting to see progress made on […]

  3. […] jobs — has reached all corners of the state, albeit to varying degrees. The state as a whole is approaching full employment. Given that the business cycle isn’t dead, we are also starting to see progress made on deeper […]

  4. […] Diagnosing the problem and researching the issues is the easy part. Actually addressing them and implementing policies is the hard part. Unfortunately, so far there is has been no silver bullet. The most common response one hears is educational attainment, and with good reason. However, as we discuss in the original job polarization report (see pg 9, e.g.), four year degrees are not the be-all and end-all of educational attainment either. Other training programs that provide skills to workers are important too. The outlook for middle-wage jobs overall depends on a number of factors. Some are driven more by population and demographics, while others are more business-support related. Wage growth itself, for any occupation, generally relies on full(ish) employment, which the state is now approaching. […]

  5. […] Diagnosing the problem and researching the issues is the easy part. Actually addressing them and implementing policies is the hard part. Unfortunately, so far there has been no silver bullet. The most common response one hears is educational attainment, and with good reason. However, as we discuss in the original job polarization report (see pg 9, e.g.), four year degrees are not the be-all and end-all of educational attainment either. Other training programs that provide skills to workers are important too. The outlook for middle-wage jobs overall depends on a number of factors. Some are driven more by population and demographics, while others are more business-support related. Wage growth itself, for any occupation, generally relies on full(ish) employment, which the state is now approaching. […]

  6. […] Think Out Loud discussing Oregon’s economy that is currently at fullish employment. Recently we have highlighted that the state overall no longer has neither an unemployment nor […]

  7. […] be on OPB’s Think Out Loud discussing Oregon’s economy that is currently at fullish employment. Recently we have highlighted that the state now has neither an unemployment nor underemployment gap. What […]

  8. […] the economic state we’re once again beginning to approach. Oregon overall is at full(ish) employment and an economy where labor is scare behaves differently than an economy digging out from a […]

  9. […] for a job today, the labor market is tight. Those working part-time but want full-time work is also back down to pre-Great Recession rates. And importantly, the share of the prime working-age population with a job is also back to where it […]


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