Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Happy tax tax everyone. While we realize it’s not most people’s favorite time of year in this regard, it is a very important part of our office’s work and for revenues that provide public services in general. Personal income taxes account for 87 percent of the 2013-15 biennium’s General Fund, according to our latest forecast.

Even though it is tax day, it does take our friends over at the Department of Revenue a few additional weeks to process the flood of returns, estimated at about 1.6 million this year. As of this week, DOR has received and processed about 63 percent of these returns. However, as seen below in this edition of the Graph of the Week, we have seen just about 26 percent the final payments for this tax season. Higher income folks generally have more complicated returns, that take longer to first obtain all the required financial documents and then to complete and file the return. As such there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty regarding the actual amount of revenue this year.

As you can see by the forecast line, our office is expecting a big April — growth on the magnitude of 26% year-over-year for the quarter in these final payments. So far both the flows of payments coming in and refunds going out the door suggest our office’s forecast is still largely on track. We will be meeting with our advisory groups over the next two weeks to discuss the economic and revenue outlook. Our next quarterly forecast, which effectively sets the 2015-17 biennium’s revenue amount and the kicker threshold, is set for release on Thursday, May 14th.