Posted by: Josh Lehner | July 10, 2014

Oregon’s Coincident Index

Each month the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia releases a coincident index for all states. The coincident index is comprised of four underlying variables and is designed to track current economic conditions, thus it is neither a leading or lagging indicator. As seen below, the vast majority of states across the country are seeing improving economic activity in recent months.


Diving into the four underlying components yields the following for Oregon. Both employment and real wages in the state are continuing to grow. The unemployment rate, while holding fairly steady in the past few months, continues to improve slowly since the Great Recession. Manufacturing hours worked have fallen slightly in recent months from about 41 hours per week to 40 hours, which is not out of line with the previous expansion. So far, each variable is looking good or at least improving. When they all move sideways together or we see stronger declines in one or two, that is when it may be time to worry. Today we’re still looking good.



  1. […] paychecks continue to grow solidly, indicating steady job growth and the state’s coincident indicators are all improving. So this is highly unlikely the first step toward the next recession, but that does not mean job […]

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