Posted by: Josh Lehner | January 30, 2014

Southern Oregon Presentation

Today, I have the privilege to present at the Southern Oregon Business Conference in Medford on the regional economy. Tim Duy, of the University of Oregon, is delivering the broader outlook alongside discussing local trends and his regional index. I will discuss the underlying drivers of the economy, how they’re doing and the outlook for the region overall. The event is put on by SOREDI, the regional economic development organization, and the lineup of speakers and sessions looks great.

Both for conference attendees and the broader audience of those interested in the Southern Oregon economy, I have uploaded my slides for review and use.

First time using SlideShare, which I have seen on a number of other sites over the years. It appears you have to have an account to download the slides for yourself. If you prefer, download the slides in PDF here: SOREDI Medford 01.30.14


Responses

  1. Thanks, Josh. … Nice to have you somewhat in my neighborhood !!!

    Sent from my iPhone

  2. Hello

    I am not attending the conference but am interested in your presentation. Looking at the “Why Do People Move?” had me wondering, has there been any follow-up research to determine if the passage of Measures 66 and 67 (I think I am correctly remembering the numbers) resulted in any high-income individuals moving out of Oregon? A little confused about the “housing stall” v “bright outlook for housing”. Is one long-term and the other short-term? Regarding the “Critical Condition Counties” slide what is being represented by the ‘1-36’ scale?

    Your presentation is very informative, thanks,

    Rob Edmiston Assistant Vice President Government Banking Risk and Portfolio Management U.S. Bank PD-OR-T5GB 111 SW 5th Avenue, Suite 550 Portland, OR 97204 robert.edmiston@usbank.com 503.275.3677 direct 503.275.7565 fax Please consider the environment before printing this message.

    • Hi Rob, thanks for reading and you bring up a lot of good questions.

      1) Unfortunately in the migration question that is asked, one of the possible answers is not taxes, which would make it a lot easier to track! Our office is undertaking a deeper look at migration this year. This northward migration pattern on the west coast (CA to OR, OR to WA) has been going on for decades. What, if anything, can we expect to be different as the Baby Boomers begin to retire en masse? Will we lose more to Washington? Can we still expect to be a net beneficiary of Californians? Questions like that we hope to answer in a future report that won’t be available for at least a few months, but should be out this year.

      2) On the housing outlook; you’re right that the housing stall is (hopefully) a near term issue but longer term the outlook remains bright. Expectations are that the slowdown/stall seen in the housing market in the second half of 2013 will prove temporary. Sticker shock for home buyers (continued rising prices and higher interest rates) was a big deal, as is supply of existing homes remaining low and we’re hearing more and more from developers about lot supply for new construction. Likely 2-3 more strong years of growth before leveling off at something approaching a normal level given population growth and household formation.

      3) The critical counties comes from something the Employment Department did last summer. The rankings are purely ordinal, going from 1 (top ranked) to 36 (bottom ranked) for each of our counties. Here is what I wrote about it last summer if you wish to follow up.

      https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/06/25/critical-counties/

  3. […] the early 80s recession. This pattern over each business cycle is similar to those seen in Southern Oregon and the South Coast, as discussed previously. The one except being the severity of the 2001 […]


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: