Posted by: Josh Lehner | April 9, 2013

County Population Forecast

One important item our office produces that flies somewhat under the radar unless you are in local government or land use issues on a regular basis is the county level population forecast. Kanhaiya, the state demographer, recently finalized the long-term county outlooks, anchored to the new 2010 Census figures and using the PSU Population Research Center estimates for 2011 and 2012. What follows is a quick overview of the population growth through 2025, however the Excel file over on our main website, has population by age, sex, births, deaths and net migration for each county through 2050.

In terms of population growth rates by county, Andre put together another great word cloud to show where the growth is expected to occur. This data is for 2012 to 2025 growth when the state total is expected to grow 16.3%. Out of Oregon’s 36 counties, 3 are expected to lose population (Grant, Sherman, Wheeler) and are colored red, while 20 are projected to grow between 0-15% and colored light green, while the remaining 13 counties are expected to grow more than 15% and colored dark green.

county growth 2012-2025v3

The fastest growing counties in the coming decade are largely expected to be the fastest growing counties in recent decades, namely the ones that are part of the state’s MSAs: Portland, Salem, Bend and Medford. In fact, the 5 Oregon counties in the Portland MSA (Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill) account for nearly 47% of the state’s population in 2012, however these counties will account for about 53% of the population growth between now and 2025. Lane (Eugene) and Benton (Corvallis) counties are expected to grow at rates slower than statewide population.

In terms of the composition of population growth and the changing demographics, the following three graphs look at the latest county forecast but aggregated by region of the state. These figures cover a slightly different time frame than the word cloud above and are from 2010 to 2025.

Net migration has been a large driver of population growth in Oregon for the past few decades. In the 1990s and mid-2000s, net migration accounted for nearly 3/4ths of total population growth (meaning the remaining 1/4 was due to natural increase, or births minus deaths.) Moving forward net migration will once again lead growth and account for 71% of overall population growth in the state. The graph below shows the share of each region’s projected population growth that is due to net migration. For the 3 regions that the share is above 100%, this means the regions are actually expected to have a declining rate of natural increase – deaths are forecasted to outnumber births in these regions.

Population_NetMigration

As for the age composition of the population, except for the coastal counties, the actual number of children and teenagers is expected to increase across the state. These rates of growth are slower than total population, so as a share, youth are expected to decline relative to the statewide figures and in each region.

Population_19Younger

As you are aware, the population in Oregon and the nation is aging, due to the baby boomers as they begin to enter their retirement years. Each region of the state will see in increase in both the number of retirement aged individuals but also as a share of the local population. The graph below shows this increase and is sorted by the 65+ share in 2025, from highest to lowest.

Population_65OlderShare

If you are interested in learning more about the state’s demographics and forecasts, please visit our main site where you can find more information.


Responses

  1. Urbanization also tends to lower birth rates. This occurs because people who live in cities, especially women, have higher levels of education and income, factors that correlate closely with decreases in birth rates. In Taiwan and South Korea, for instance, increasing affluence and rising education levels have resulted in smaller families, and population growth has fallen by half. Governments and private organizations are also working to control population increases by distributing family-planning information and through systems of taxes and other incentives that discourage large families. However, education and money only really play a contributory role, since the one factor that is directly related to birth rates is the capacity of a woman (in terms of knowledge and the necessary contraceptive materials) to manage her own fertility. Around three-quarters of the women who want to plan the number and spacing of the children they give birth to do not have access to family planning materials. Another key factor that influences birth rates is a woman’s confidence that the children she bears will survive and be healthy.

  2. The metropolitan area has grown significantly in recent decades, gaining nearly a million people between 1970 and 2000. Between 1990 and 2000 alone, our region grew at about twice the rate of the nation as a whole, with 70% of this growth caused by migration to the area (2) . While Multnomah County continues to have more people than other counties, its share of the overall population has been falling. In fact, between 1990 and 2000, Clark County grew at a rate of 45%, Washington County at 43% and Multnomah County at a relatively lower 13% (3) .

  3. […] trends are most pronounced along the Southern Coast but also prominent in Southern Oregon. As discussed in more depth previously, all of the population growth in these regions is projected to be due to […]

  4. […] the state average. See the Oregon timber counties post for more on the influx of migrants and the county population forecast post for more on the demographic […]

  5. […] California. See the Oregon timber counties post for more on the influx of these migrants and the county population forecast post for more on the demographic outlook more […]

  6. […] this recovery (see HERE, HERE and HERE for some examples) and also the demographic outlook (see HERE and also the slides and discussion from the lastest revenue […]

  7. […] The issue: Washington County is projected to have the state’s highest population growth, of 377,000 people (a 70 percent growth over today’s population), in the next 35 years, according to the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. […]


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: