Posted by: Josh Lehner | August 26, 2011

September Economic and Revenue Forecast

Our latest quarterly forecast was released this morning. Please find all documents related to the release on our website (pdfs, slides, excel files). Below are a few charts and figures that can be found in our files and these provide a simple, illustrative summary.

Given the pessimism around the country, which states are seeing the slowdown currently?

The next picture takes a look at the various individual indicators we have in Oregon and how each is performing. The yellow indicators are where the slowing is occurring, while the red have really yet to improve at all over the past couple of years.

Exports continue to expand nicely. After surging in 2010, high tech exports have fallen somewhat, however the majority of Oregon’s tech companies continue to do well. Non-tech exports (the red line) are up 30%.

Given the lowered employment outlook and the stock market turmoil, the vast majority of the revisions to the revenue were in the personal income tax component. The next graph provides a rough accounting of which income categories bear the brunt of the revisions.

The next post, coming shortly, will highlight the main drags on economic growth today.

 


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