Last month, the Pew Center on the States together with the Rockefeller Institute of Government issued a report on trends in revenue forecasting, in which Oregon and its kicker law played a central role (“States’ Revenue Estimating: Cracks in the Crystal Ball”). Despite several references to our state, it would be dangerous to base any policy prescriptions for Oregon’s tax structure or forecasting processes on the study results….
…It only takes a quick look at the estimates of forecast errors produced in the study to confirm that volatility of revenue streams is a major determinant of interstate differences in forecast accuracy….
…major revenue streams bounce around twice as much in California and Oregon as they do in New York and Illinois.
For a detailed discussion, download the full post here: Comments on Pew Revenue Estimating Study 411