Our office released the quarterly economic and revenue forecast this morning. The full document and underlying details may be downloaded on our website, HERE. Below are a few graphs depicting our updated outlook for Oregon’s economy and the state’s general fund revenue.
Our outlook for Total Nonfarm Employment is a little stronger than in the December forecast, especially in the outer years.
The current forecast calls for Total Nonfarm Employment to return to its peak level in late 2014. The previous forecast called for a return to peak in early 2015.
General Fund revenues for the current (2009-11) biennium are little changed on net from the previous forecast. Personal Income Taxes are increased. Corporate Income Taxes are lowered due to weaker actual revenue, relative to forecast, and a weaker corporate profits forecast.
While the current biennium revenue is up slightly, the 2011-13 BN revenue is down slightly (-$81 million, or -0.6 %). This is primarily due to Federal Reconnect issues in which revenue next biennium is lower, however revenue in future biennia is raised. The underlying economic forecast for the 2011-13 BN is little changed (up slightly) from the previous forecast. The two outer years biennia are raised more substantially, due to a stronger economic outlook and also the full sunsetting of Oregon tax credits.
The overall Lottery forecast is down slightly as weaker sales for Video Lottery are driving the overall decline. Video Lottery accounts for approximately 85-90 percent of all Lottery sales. Traditional Lottery (scratch-its, keno, powerball, etc) sales have been strong the past few months.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss the forecast, please contact us (website).
UPDATE: Per this morning, below is the forecast change chart that did not make it into the committees’ packets prior to the release. The graph illustrates the changes our office has made to the upcoming biennium General Fund revenue from the March release to the May release, for the past eight biennia. For example, the change from the March 2007 forecast to the May 2007 forecast for the 2007-2009 BN was +2.42% or +$307 million.
Mark McMullen
Josh Lehner
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 
Question: How can the recession be over when come June 30, 2011, thousands of hard working school district employees will lose their jobs?
The State of Oregon knowingly budgeted a serious monetary shortfall for schools. Unemployment rates will go back up. The state of schools will decrease, and coupled with the difficulty of running a business in Oregon, people will flee, just as they did California when the quality of their schools tanked.
For those Oregonians who do not know, we all pay into PERS and we all pay for our medical benefits. We don’t have a “free” retirement.
By: Brenda on April 21, 2011
at 8:47 AM
The current employment numbers show that Local Education, which is primarily composed of K-12 along with Community College employees, has seen job losses of about 4,000 over the past two years and our office’s forecast unfortunately calls for more job losses in all levels of public employment over the next year or so. The fiscal environment is making for tough decisions at all levels of government and more job losses are expected in the near future. Even with these projected public sector job losses, the net result for overall employment in Oregon is forecasted to be positive in the sense that there will be more private sector gains than public sector losses. As a result, Oregon’s employment will continue to increase.
By: oregoneconomicanalysis on April 21, 2011
at 10:11 AM